BEIJING, Julayi 16, 2025 - Imakethe yase-China ye-dichloromethane (DCM) ihlangabezane nokwehla okukhulu engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025, amanani ehla ehla ngeminyaka emihlanu, ngokokuhlaziywa kwemboni. Ukusatshalaliswa ngokweqile okuqhubekayo, okuqhutshwa ukwanda kwamandla amasha kanye nesidingo esibucayi, kuchaze isimo semakethe.
Ukuthuthukiswa Okubalulekile kwe-H1 2025:
Ukugoqa Kwentengo: Isilinganiso senani lentengo yokwenziwa kwenqwaba e-Shandong sehle saya ku-2,338 RMB/ton ngo-Juni 30, sehle ngo-0.64% unyaka nonyaka (YoY). Amanani akhuphuke kakhulu ku-2,820 RMB/ton ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari kodwa ehla afinyelela phansi ku-1,980 RMB/ton ekuqaleni kukaMeyi - ububanzi obuguquguqukayo obungu-840 RMB/ton, obubanzi kakhulu kuno-2024.
Ukusatshalaliswa Okuningi Kuyaqina: Umthamo omusha, ikakhulukazi amathani angu-200,000/ngonyaka we-methane chloride e-Hengyang kusukela ngo-Ephreli, uphushele inani eliphelele le-DCM eliphumayo lafinyelela kumathani angama-855,700 (enyuke ngo-19.36% YoY). Amazinga aphezulu okusebenza embonini (77-80%) kanye nokukhiqizwa kwe-DCM okwandisiwe ukuze kuncishiswe ukulahlekelwa emkhiqizweni ohlangene we-Chloroform kwandisa ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka.
I-Demand Growth Falls Short: Nakuba isiqandisi esimaphakathi esingezansi komfula i-R32 senza kahle (siqhutshwa isilinganiso sokukhiqiza kanye nesidingo esinamandla se-air-conditioning ngaphansi kwezibonelelo zikahulumeni), isidingo sezinto ezincibilikayo esivamile sihlala sibuthakathaka. Ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke, ukungezwani kwezohwebo kwe-Sino-US, kanye nokushintshwa kwe-ethylene dichloride eshibhile (EDC) kwehliswe isidingo. Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kukhule ngo-31.86% YoY kuya kumathani ayi-113,000, okuhlinzeka ngokukhululeka okuthile kodwa akwanele ukulinganisa imakethe.
Inzuzo Iphezulu Kodwa Yehla: Naphezu kokwehla kwezintengo ze-DCM ne-Chloroform, isilinganiso senzuzo yemboni sifinyelele ku-694 RMB/ton (enyuke ngo-112.23% YoY), sisekelwa izindleko zempahla eluhlaza eziphansi kakhulu (i-chlorine enguketshezi enesilinganiso esingu-168 RMB/ton). Nokho, inzuzo yehla kakhulu ngemva kukaMeyi, yehla ngaphansi kuka-100 RMB/ton ngoJuni.
I-H2 2025 Outlook: Ingcindezi Eqhubekayo nezintengo eziphansi
Ukuhlinzeka Ukuze Ukhule Kakhudlwana: Kulindelwe umthamo omusha omkhulu: i-Shandong Yonghao & Tai (100,000 amathani/ngonyaka ku-Q3), i-Chongqing Jialihe (mathani angu-50,000/unyaka ekupheleni konyaka), kanye nokuqalisa kabusha okungaba khona kwe-Dongying Jinmao Aluminium (120,000 amathani/ngonyaka). Umthamo osebenzayo we-methane chloride ungafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezi-4.37 ngonyaka.
Izithiyo Zezidingo: Isidingo sika-R32 kulindeleke ukuthi sithambe ngemva kwe-H1 eqinile. Isidingo se-solvent esivamile sinikeza ithemba elincane. Ukuncintisana okuvela ku-EDC yamanani aphansi kuzoqhubeka.
I-Cost Support Limited: Izintengo ze-chlorine ewuketshezi zibikezelwa ukuthi zizohlala zingezinhle futhi zibuthakathaka, zinikeza ingcindezi encane yezindleko ezikhuphukayo, kodwa okungenzeka zinikeze isitezi samanani e-DCM.
Isibikezelo senani: Ukunikezwa ngokweqile okuyisisekelo cishe ngeke kube lula. Izintengo ze-DCM zilindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziboshelwe kububanzi emazingeni aphansi kuyo yonke i-H2, okungenzeka kube khona ukwehla kwesizini ngoJulayi nokuphezulu ngoSepthemba.
Isiphetho: Imakethe yaseShayina ye-DCM ibhekene nengcindezi eqhubekayo ngo-2025. Nakuba i-H1 yabona umphumela orekhodiwe kanye nenzuzo naphezu kokwehla kwamanani entengo, umbono we-H2 ukhomba ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kokuhlinzeka ngempahla eningi kanye nesidingo esithulisiwe, ukubamba amanani emazingeni aphansi ngokomlando. Izimakethe ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zihlala ziwumthombo obalulekile kubakhiqizi basekhaya.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-16-2025