[Ukuhola] Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene nemikhiqizo ehlobene ngokuvamile ibonise ithrendi ehlayo eshintshayo. Amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe aba buthaka kuqala abese eqiniswa; kodwa-ke, isidingo sokuphela se-toluene/xylene yasekhaya kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo yahlala ibuthakathaka. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukunikezwa kwakhula kancane kancane ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izitshalo ezintsha, futhi ukuntengantenga kokunikezwa kanye nezidingo eziyisisekelo kudonsele amanani emakethe okukhulunywe ngawo ehle. Imikhiqizo ethile kuphela ebone ukunyuka kwentengo kancane, okuqhutshwa izici ezifana namanani aphansi adlule kanye nesidingo esikhulayo kusukela ekuqalisweni kabusha kwezitshalo eziya ezansi nomfula ngemva kokunakekelwa. Izisekelo zokuhlinzekwa nezidingo zemakethe kaSepthemba zizohlala zintekenteke, kodwa ngokunqwabelanisa isitokwe sangaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide elifushane, imakethe ingase iyeke ukuwa noma ibophe kabusha kancane.
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Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene nemikhiqizo ehlobene ngokuvamile yehla ngokuguquguquka. Amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe ayebuthakathaka ekuqaleni ngaphambi kokuba aqiniswe; kodwa-ke, isidingo sokuphela sasekhaya se-toluene/xylene kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo yahlala ivilapha. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwaqhutshwa ukukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izitshalo ezintsha, kwenza buthaka izinto eziyisisekelo zesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kanye nokwehlisa amanani entengo emakethe okukhulunywe ngawo. Imikhiqizo embalwa kuphela ebone ukukhuphuka kwentengo kancane, okusekelwa amazinga entengo aphansi ngaphambilini kanye nesidingo esikhulayo kusukela ekuqaliseni kabusha izitshalo ezithile ezansi nomfula ngemva kokunakekelwa. Izidingongqangi ezidingekayo zizohlala zibuthakathaka ngoSepthemba, kodwa ngokunqwabelana kwangaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide elifushane, imakethe ingase iyeke ukwehla noma ifake i-rebound ethambile.
Ukuhlaziywa Okusekelwe Ekuqhathanisweni Kwamanani Ango-August Toluene/Xylene Nedatha Eyisisekelo
Sekukonke, izintengo zibonise ukuthambekela kokwehla, kodwa ngemva kokuwela emazingeni aphansi, izinzuzo zokukhiqiza ezansi nomfula ziba ngcono kancane. Ukukhula kwesidingo ngezigaba ekuhlanganisweni kukawoyela kanye ne-PX yehlisa ijubane lokwehla kwentengo:
Izingxoxo Eziningi Odabeni lwaseRussia-Ukraine kanye Nokukhuphuka Kokukhiqiza Okuqhubekayo kweSaudi Arabia Gcina i-Market Bearish
Amanani kawoyela ehle ngokuqhubekayo kule nyanga ngokwehla okukhulu kukonke, njengoba i-US crude iguquguquka kakhulu phakathi kwama-$62-$68 umphongolo. I-US yabamba izingxoxo zomuntu siqu nezwe laseYurophu, i-Ukraine, kanye namanye amazwe ase-Europe ukuze kuxoxwe ngokuqeda kwangempela kwengxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine, okuphakamisa okulindelwe yimakethe okuhle. UDonald Trump uphinde wasayina kaningi inqubekelaphambili ezingxoxweni, okuholele ekutheni kuqhubeke ukuhoxiswa kwamaphrimiyamu e-geopolitical. I-OPEC+ eholwa yiSaudi Arabia yaqhubeka nokwandisa umkhiqizo ukuze ithathe isabelo semakethe; okuhambisana nokuba ntekenteke kwesidingo sikawoyela wase-US kanye nesivinini esincane sokudonswa kwempahla kawoyela wase-US, okuyisisekelo kwahlala kubuthakathaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, idatha yezomnotho efana nokukhokhelwa okungewona amapulazi kanye nezinsizakalo ze-PMI zaqala ukuthamba, futhi i-Federal Reserve yabonisa ukuncishiswa kwezinga ngo-September, futhi iqinisekisa ubungozi obuphansi emnothweni. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwamanani entengo kawoyela wamazwe omhlaba nakho kube yisici esibalulekile esibhebhethekisa ukubukeka kwe-bearish ezimakethe ze-toluene nexylene.
Inzuzo Eyanele evela ku-Toluene Disproportionation & MX-PX Inqubo Efushane; Ukuthengwa Kwezinto Zangaphandle Kwezigaba ze-PX Enterprises Kusekela Izimakethe Ezimbili Ze-Benzene
Ngo-Agasti, izintengo ze-toluene, i-xylene, ne-PX zilandele ukuguquguquka okufanayo kodwa okunomehluko omncane wama-amplitude, okuholele ekuthuthukisweni okulinganiselwe kwenzuzo evela ekulinganisweni kwe-toluene kanye nenqubo emfushane ye-MX-PX. Amabhizinisi e-Downstream PX aqhubekile nokuthenga i-toluene ne-xylene ngenani elilinganiselwe, avimbela ukukhula kwempahla ezindaweni ezizimele zaseShandong kanye namachweba amakhulu e-Jiangsu kusukela ekuhlangabezaneni nokulindelwe, ngaleyo ndlela anikeze ukusekelwa okuqinile kumanani emakethe.
I-Divergent Supply-Demay Dynamics Phakathi kwe-Toluene ne-Xylene Nciphisa Intengo Yazo Ukusabalala
Ngo-August, izitshalo ezintsha ezifana ne-Yulong Petrochemical kanye ne-Ningbo Daxie zaqala ukukhiqizwa, zanda ukunikezwa. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kokunikezwayo kwakugxile kakhulu ku-xylene, kwakha isisekelo sezidingo ezihlukene phakathi kwe-toluene nexylene. Naphezu kokwehla kwentengo okubangelwa izici ze-bearish ezifana nokwehla kwamanani entengo kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka, ukwehla kwe-toluene bekukuncane kunalokho kwe-xylene, okunciphisa inani lokusabalala lafinyelela ku-200-250 yuan/ton.
September Outlook Market
NgoSepthemba, izisekelo zokuhlinzeka nge-toluene/xylene nemikhiqizo ehlobene nazo zizohlala zibuthakathaka kakhulu. Imakethe ingase iqhubeke nemikhuba yayo eguquguqukayo ebuthaka ekuqaleni kwenyanga, kodwa amaphethini omlando wesizini abonisa ukuthambekela kokuthuthukiswa ngoSepthemba. Ukwengeza, izintengo zemakethe zamanje ngokuvamile ziphansi ngeminyaka emihlanu, futhi okulindelekile kokunqwabelanisa isitokwe sangaphambi kwamaholide ngaphambi kweholide Losuku Lwesizwe kungase kunikeze ukwesekwa okuthile, kukhawulele ukwehla kwentengo. Ukuthi i-rebound iyenzeka kuzoncika ezinguqukweni zesidingo esikhulayo. Ngezansi ukuhlaziya okuthrendayo komkhiqizo ngamunye:
Uwoyela Ongahluziwe: Amanani Angase Ashintshe Ngaphansi Kwengcindezi Ngokuguquguquka Okuncane
Izingxoxo ngodaba lweRussia-Ukraine zizoqhubeka, lapho i-Ukraine ivumelana ngokomgomo nesivumelwano “sendawo yokuthula”. Wonke amaqembu ahlela umhlangano wezinhlangothi ezintathu ohilela i-Ukraine, izwe laseYurophu, ne-US Nakuba le nqubo izohlala ihlukumeza, izohlinzeka ngokusekela okucacile kwamanani kawoyela phansi. Kodwa-ke, ukumiswa kokudubula kungenzeka kakhulu uma sekubanjwe izingxoxo, okuholela ekuhoxisweni okuqhubekayo kwamaphrimiyamu ezwe. ISaudi Arabia izoqhubeka nokukhulisa ukukhiqizwa, futhi i-US ingena ekudingeni uwoyela ngezikhathi ezithile. Ngemuva kokushoda kwempahla ngesikhathi sesizini ephezulu, imakethe yesaba ukuthi i-inventory iyashesha ukwakha ngenkathi engasebenzi, okuzophinde kube nesisindo samanani entengo kawoyela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Federal Reserve kungenzeka yehlise amanani ngoSepthemba njengoba bekulindelekile, ukushintsha ukugxila kwemakethe kuye kujubane elilandelako lokwehliswa kwamanani, okuholela kumthelela ongathathi hlangothi ezintengo zikawoyela. Izingxoxo zokumisa impi phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukuhoxiswa kwamaphrimiyamu ezwe, ukwehla komnotho, kanye nokwakhiwa kwempahla kawoyela kuzocindezela amanani kawoyela ukuthi alungise kancane.
I-Toluene & Xylene: Izingxoxo Kungenzeka Zibe Buthaka Kuqala, Bese Ziqine
Izimakethe ze-toluene zasekhaya kanye ne-xylene kulindeleke ukuthi zehle kuqala bese zibe ngaphezulu ngoSepthemba, zibe nebanga lokuguquguquka elilinganiselwe. I-Sinopec, iPetroChina, nabanye abakhiqizi basazobeka phambili ukuzisebenzisa ngoSepthemba, kodwa amanye amabhizinisi azokwenyusa ukuthengiswa kwangaphandle kancane. Kuhlanganiswe nokunikezwa okukhuphukayo okuvela ezitshalweni ezintsha ezifana ne-Ningbo Daxie, igebe lokuhlinzeka elivela ekunciphiseni izinga lokusebenza okuhleliwe le-Yulong Petrochemical lizovalwa. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ngenkathi amathrendi omlando ekhombisa isidingo esithuthukisiwe ngoSepthemba, azikho izimpawu zokuthi ufunwa yini okwamanje. Ukusabalala kwe-MX-PX okunwetshiwe kuphela okugcine okulindelekile ekuthengeni kwe-PX engezansi kuphila, kuhlinzeka ngokusekelwa okuqinile kwamanani. Ukwengeza, inzuzo ephansi yokuhlanganisa uwoyela kanye namanani aphansi ezingxenye zokuhlanganisa ezihlobene azokhawulela ukukhula kwesidingo sokuxutshwa kukawoyela. Ukuhlaziya okuphelele kusikisela ukuthi izinto eziyisisekelo zokufunwa komphakeli zihlala zibuthakathaka, kodwa amanani amanje-ngeminyaka emihlanu ephansi-anamandla okumelana nokwehla okuqhubekayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo okungaba khona kungase kukhuphule umuzwa wemakethe. Ngakho-ke, imakethe kungenzeka ibe buthakathaka kuqala bese iba namandla ngoSepthemba, ngokuguquguquka okuncane.
I-Benzene: Kulindeleke ukuthi Ihlanganiswe Ngokubuthakathaka Ngenyanga ezayo
Izintengo ze-Benzene zingase zihlanganiswe kancane kancane nokuchema okubuthakathaka. Ngaphambili kwezindleko, uwoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke ukuthi ushintshe ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngenyanga ezayo, kanti isikhungo sokushintshashintsha sishintsha kancane sibheke phansi. Ngokuyisisekelo, amabhizinisi ahamba phansi awanawo umfutho wokulandela ukukhuphuka kwentengo ngenxa yama-oda amasha anganele kanye nezinhlu eziqhubekayo eziphakeme emikhakheni yesibili ephansi komfula, okudala ukumelana okukhulu nokudluliswa kwentengo. Okulindelekile kuphela kwenyanga yokuphela kokwehla komfula okungase kunikeze ukwesekwa okuthile.
I-PX: Imakethe Ingase Ihlanganiswe Ngokuguquguquka Okuncane
Ethintwe intuthuko ye-Middle East geopolitics, okulindelwe ukuncishiswa kwezinga le-Fed, kanye nokuphazamiseka kwenqubomgomo yentela yase-US, amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe angase ahwebe ngokubuthakathaka, anikeze ukusekelwa kwezindleko ezilinganiselwe. Ngokuyisisekelo, isikhathi sokunakekela esigxilisiwe se-PX yasekhaya siphelile, ngakho-ke ukunikezwa sekukonke kuzohlala kuphezulu. Ukwengeza, ukusetshenziswa komthamo omusha we-MX kungase kukhuphule ukuphuma kwe-PX ngokuthengwa kwangaphandle kwezinto zokusetshenziswa yizitshalo ze-PX. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, amabhizinisi e-PTA andisa ukunakekelwa ngenxa yezindleko eziphansi zokucubungula, okwenza kube nzima ingcindezi yesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla ye-PX yasekhaya kanye nokuzethemba kwemakethe yamazinyo.
I-MTBE: Isidingo Sokuhlinzeka Ngempahla Ebuthakathaka kodwa Izindleko Zokusekela Ukushayela Isitayela “Esibuthakathaka Okokuqala, Bese Siqinile”
Ukunikezwa kwe-MTBE kwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngokuqhubekayo ngoSepthemba. Isidingo sikaphethiloli cishe sizohlala sizinzile; kuyilapho ukuqoqwa kwesitokwe sangaphambi koSuku LukaZwelonke kungase kudale isidingo esithile, umphumela wako wokusekela kulindeleke ukuba ube nomkhawulo. Ukwengeza, izingxoxo zokuthekelisa ze-MTBE ziyashoda, zibeka ingcindezi ephansi emananini. Nokho, ukusekelwa kwezindleko kuzokhawulela ukwehla, okuholela ekuthambekeni okulindelekile “okubuthakathaka kuqala, bese kuba namandla” kwamanani e-MTBE.
Uphethiloli: Supply-Dema Pressure ukuze Ugcine Imakethe Ibuthakathaka Ngokuguquguquka
Izintengo zasekhaya zikaphethiloli zingase ziqhubeke nokushintshashintsha kancane ngoSepthemba. Uwoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke ukuthi ulungiswe ngaphansi kwengcindezi enesikhungo esishintshashintshayo esiphansi, esinesisindo emakethe yasekhaya kaphethiloli. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, amanani okusebenza ezinkampanini ezinkulu zikawoyela azokwehla, kodwa lawo asezindaweni ezizimele zokuhluza azokhuphuka, aqinisekise ukutholakala kukaphethiloli owanele. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ngenkathi isizini ephakeme yendabuko “yeGolden September” ingase inyuse kancane isidingo sikaphethiloli nodizili, ukushintshwa kwamandla amasha kuzokhawulela izinga lokuthuthuka. Phakathi kwezinto ezixubene ne-bullish kanye ne-bearish, amanani kaphethiloli wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi aguquguquke kancane ngoSepthemba, nenani elimaphakathi okungenzeka lehle ngo-50-100 yuan/ton.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-05-2025