[Ukuhola] Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo ngokuvamile ibonise ukwehla okuguqukayo. Amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe ayebuthakathaka kuqala bese eqiniswa; noma kunjalo, isidingo sokugcina se-toluene/xylene yasekhaya kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo sahlala sibuthakathaka. Ngasohlangothini lokunikezwa, ukunikezwa kwakhula kancane ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izitshalo ezintsha, kanti izisekelo zokunikezwa nokufunwa ezibuthakathaka zadonsela phansi amanani emakethe amaningi okuxoxiswane ngawo. Imikhiqizo ethile kuphela ebone ukwanda okuncane kwentengo, okubangelwa yizici ezifana namanani aphansi angaphambilini kanye nesidingo esengeziwe esivela ekuqalisweni kabusha kwezinye izitshalo ezingezansi ngemva kokulungiswa. Izisekelo zokunikezwa nokufunwa kwemakethe kaSepthemba zizohlala zibuthakathaka, kodwa ngokugcinwa kwangaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide elifushane, imakethe ingase iyeke ukwehla noma ibuye kancane.
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Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo ngokuvamile yehle ngokuguquguquka. Amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe ayebuthakathaka ekuqaleni ngaphambi kokuqina; noma kunjalo, isidingo sasekhaya se-toluene/xylene kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene naso sahlala sihamba kancane. Ngasohlangothini lokunikezwa, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwaqhutshwa ukukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izitshalo ezintsha, kwenza buthaka izisekelo zokufunwa kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokwehlisa amanani emakethe amaningi okuxoxiswana ngawo. Imikhiqizo embalwa kuphela ebone ukwanda okuncane kwentengo, kusekelwa amazinga ayo entengo aphansi ngaphambilini kanye nesidingo esengeziwe esivela ekuqalisweni kabusha kwezinye izitshalo ezingezansi ngemva kokulungiswa. Izisekelo zokufunwa kokuhlinzekwa zizohlala zibuthakathaka ngoSepthemba, kodwa njengoba ukuqoqwa kwangaphambi kweholide kuqhubeka ngaphambi kweholide elifushane, imakethe ingase iyeke ukwehla noma iqale ukwehla kancane.
Ukuhlaziywa Okusekelwe Ekuqhathanisweni Kwamanani e-August Toluene/Xylene kanye Nedatha Eyisisekelo
Sekukonke, amanani abonise ukwehla, kodwa ngemva kokwehla kwamazinga aphansi, inzuzo yokukhiqiza engezansi yathuthuka kancane. Ukukhula kwesidingo ngezigaba ekuxubeni uwoyela kanye ne-PX yehlisa ijubane lokwehla kwentengo:
Izingxoxo Eziningi Ngodaba LweRussia-Ukraine kanye Nokunyuka Komkhiqizo Okuqhubekayo KweSaudi Arabia Kugcina Imakethe Iqinile
Amanani kawoyela ehle njalo kule nyanga ngokwehla okukhulu, njengoba i-US crude iguquguquka kakhulu phakathi kuka-$62-$68 ngebhereli. I-US ibinezingxoxo zobuso nobuso nezwe laseYurophu, i-Ukraine, kanye namanye amazwe aseYurophu ukuxoxa ngokumiswa kwangempela kwengxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, okuphakamisa ukulindela okuhle emakethe. UDonald Trump uphinde wabonisa intuthuko ezingxoxweni, okwaholela ekuqedweni okuqhubekayo kwamaphrimiyamu ezepolitiki. I-OPEC+ eholwa yiSaudi Arabia iqhubekile nokwandisa umkhiqizo ukuze ibambe isabelo semakethe; kanye nokuncipha kwesidingo sikawoyela wase-US kanye nesivinini esiphansi sokudonsa uwoyela wase-US, izisekelo zahlala zibuthakathaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, idatha yezomnotho efana nokukhokhelwa kwemisebenzi okungeyona eyasemapulazini kanye nezinsizakalo ze-PMI yaqala ukuthamba, kanti iFederal Reserve yabonisa ukwehla kwamanani ngoSepthemba, okuqinisekisa izingozi eziphansi emnothweni. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwamanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe nakho kwakuyisici esibalulekile esibhebhethekisa umuzwa wokungabi namandla emakethe ye-toluene ne-xylene.
Inzuzo Eyanele Evela Ekulinganisweni Kwe-Toluene kanye Nenqubo Emfushane ye-MX-PX; Ukuthengwa Kwangaphandle Okuhlukaniswe Ngezigaba Kwe-PX Enterprises Kusekela Izimakethe Ezimbili Ze-Benzene
Ngo-Agasti, amanani e-toluene, i-xylene, kanye ne-PX alandela umkhuba ofanayo wokuguquguquka kodwa ngomehluko omncane ekukhuleni, okwaholela ekuthuthukisweni okuncane kwenzuzo evela ekungalinganini kwe-toluene kanye nenqubo emfushane ye-MX-PX. Amabhizinisi e-PX aphansi aqhubeka nokuthenga i-toluene kanye ne-xylene ngobuningi obuphakathi, evimbela ukukhula kwempahla ezindaweni zokuhluza ezizimele zaseShandong kanye namachweba amakhulu eJiangsu ekuhlangabezaneni nokulindelwe, ngaleyo ndlela enikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile emananini emakethe.
Ukuguquguquka Kwesidingo Sokunikezwa Kokuphakelwa Phakathi Kwe-Toluene Ne-Xylene Kunciphisa Ukusabalala Kwentengo Yabo
Ngo-Agasti, izitshalo ezintsha ezifana ne-Yulong Petrochemical kanye ne-Ningbo Daxie zaqala ukukhiqizwa, okwandisa ukunikezwa. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kokunikezwa kwakugxile kakhulu ku-xylene, okudala izisekelo ezihlukene zokunikezwa-isidingo phakathi kwe-toluene ne-xylene. Naphezu kokwehla kwentengo okubangelwa yizici eziphansi njengokwehla kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni jikelele kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka, ukwehla kwe-toluene kwakuncane kunokwe-xylene, okunciphisa ukusabalala kwentengo yabo ku-200-250 yuan/ton.
Umbono Wemakethe KaSepthemba
NgoSepthemba, izisekelo zokufunwa kwe-toluene/xylene kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nazo zizohlala zibuthakathaka kakhulu. Imakethe ingase iqhubeke nomkhuba wayo wokuguquguquka obuthakathaka ekuqaleni kwenyanga, kodwa amaphethini omlando wezinkathi abonisa ukuthambekela kokuthuthuka ngoSepthemba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amanani emakethe amanje aphansi kakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu, futhi okulindelwe kokugcinwa okugxilile ngaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide likaSuku Lukazwelonke kunganikeza ukwesekwa okuthile, kunciphise ukwehla kwentengo. Ukuthi ukubuya kuzokwenzeka yini kuzoncika ezinguqukweni zesidingo esikhulayo. Ngezansi ukuhlaziywa kwezitayela zomkhiqizo ngamunye:
Uwoyela Ongahluziwe: Amanani Angase Alungise Ngaphansi Kwengcindezi Ngokushintshashintsha Okuncane
Izingxoxo ngendaba yeRussia-Ukraine zizoqhubeka, lapho i-Ukraine ivumelana ngokomthetho ngesivumelwano "sendawo yokuthula". Zonke izinhlangothi zihlela umhlangano wezinhlangothi ezintathu ohilela i-Ukraine, izwe laseYurophu, kanye ne-US. Nakuba inqubo izohlala inzima, izohlinzeka ngokusekelwa okucacile kwamanani kawoyela aphansi. Kodwa-ke, ukumiswa komlilo kungenzeka kakhulu uma izingxoxo ezilandelayo sezibanjiwe, okuholela ekukhululweni okuqhubekayo kwamaphrimiyamu ezombusazwe. I-Saudi Arabia izoqhubeka nokukhulisa umkhiqizo, kanti i-US ingena ekuthuleni kwesizini kwesidingo sikawoyela. Ngemuva kokuncipha kwempahla ngesikhathi sesizini ephezulu, imakethe yesaba ukwakhiwa kwempahla okusheshayo ngesikhathi sokuphumula, okuzophinde kuthinte amanani kawoyela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Federal Reserve cishe izonciphisa amanani ngoSepthemba njengoba bekulindelekile, ishintshe ukugxila kwemakethe kube yisivinini esilandelayo sokunciphisa amanani, okuholela ekuthintekeni okungathathi hlangothi kwamanani kawoyela. Izingxoxo zokumiswa komlilo phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukususwa kwamaphrimiyamu ezombusazwe, ukwehla komnotho, kanye nokwakhiwa kwempahla kawoyela konke kuzocindezela amanani kawoyela ukuthi alungise kancane.
I-Toluene ne-Xylene: Izingxoxo Ezingaba Buthaka Kuqala, Bese Ziqine
Izimakethe zasekhaya ze-toluene kanye ne-xylene kulindeleke ukuthi zehle kuqala bese ziphakama ngoSepthemba, ngebanga lokuguquguquka okuphelele. I-Sinopec, i-PetroChina, kanye nabanye abakhiqizi bazoqhubeka nokubeka phambili ukuzisebenzisa ngoSepthemba, kodwa amanye amabhizinisi azokwandisa ukuthengiswa kwangaphandle kancane. Kuhlanganiswe nokuhlinzekwa okuqhubekayo okuvela ezitshalweni ezintsha njenge-Ningbo Daxie, igebe lokuhlinzekwa elivela ekunciphiseni izinga lokusebenza okuhleliwe kwe-Yulong Petrochemical lizogcwaliswa. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ngenkathi izitayela zomlando zibonisa isidingo esithuthukisiwe ngoSepthemba, azikho izimpawu zokuqoqwa kwesidingo okwamanje. Ukusabalala kwe-MX-PX okwandisiwe kuphela okugcine amathemba okuthengwa kwe-PX ephila, okunikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile kwentengo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo ephansi yokuxuba uwoyela kanye namanani aphansi ezingxenye zokuxuba ezihlobene kuzokhawulela ukukhula kwesidingo sokuxuba uwoyela. Ukuhlaziywa okuphelele kusikisela ukuthi izisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kwesidingo zihlala zibuthakathaka, kodwa amanani amanje—aphansi eminyakeni emihlanu—amelana kakhulu nokwehla okuqhubekayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo okungenzeka kungakhulisa imizwa yemakethe. Ngakho-ke, imakethe cishe izoba buthakathaka kuqala bese iqina ngoSepthemba, ngokushintshashintsha okuncane.
I-Benzene: Kulindeleke ukuthi ihlanganiswe kancane kancane ngenyanga ezayo
Amanani e-benzene angase ahlangane kancane kancane ngokukhetha okubuthakathaka. Ngasohlangothini lwezindleko, uwoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke ukuthi ulungise ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngenyanga ezayo, kanti isikhungo sokuguquguquka sisonke sishintsha kancane. Ngokuyisisekelo, amabhizinisi angaphansi kwamanzi awanawo amandla okulandela ukwenyuka kwentengo ngenxa yokunganeli kwama-oda amasha kanye nempahla ehlala iphezulu emikhakheni yesibili engaphansi kwamanzi, okudala ukumelana okukhulu nokudluliselwa kwentengo. Ukulindela kokuthengwa kwempahla ekupheleni kwenyanga kuphela okunganikeza ukwesekwa okuthile.
I-PX: Imakethe Kungenzeka Ihlanganiswe Nokuguquguquka Okuncane
Ethintwe yintuthuko kwezepolitiki zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, ukulindela kokunciphisa izinga le-Fed, kanye nokuphazamiseka kwenqubomgomo yentela yase-US, amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe cishe azohweba kancane, okuhlinzeka ngokusekelwa kwezindleko okulinganiselwe. Ngokuyisisekelo, isikhathi sokulungisa esigxile se-PX yasekhaya sesiphelile, ngakho-ke ukunikezwa okuphelele kuzohlala kuphezulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukusebenza kwamandla amasha e-MX kungakhuphula umkhiqizo we-PX ngokuthengwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa zangaphandle yizitshalo ze-PX. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, amabhizinisi e-PTA andisa ukulungiswa ngenxa yezimali zokucubungula eziphansi, okwandisa ingcindezi yesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwe-PX yasekhaya kanye nokwehlisa ukuzethemba kwemakethe.
I-MTBE: Isidingo Sokunikezwa Esibuthakathaka Kodwa Ukusekelwa Okubizayo Ukuze Kuqhutshwe Umkhuba “Obuthakathaka Kuqala, Bese Kuqina”
Ukunikezwa kwe-MTBE yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kwande kakhulu ngoSepthemba. Isidingo sikaphethiloli cishe sizohlala sizinzile; ngenkathi ukuqoqwa kwangaphambi koSuku Lukazwelonke kungase kudale isidingo esithile, umphumela waso wokusekela kulindeleke ukuthi ulinganiselwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izingxoxo zokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-MTBE azinamsebenzi, zibeka ingcindezi ephansi emananini. Kodwa-ke, ukwesekwa kwezindleko kuzonciphisa ukwehla, okuholela ekuthambekeni okulindelekile "okubuthakathaka kuqala, bese kuba namandla" kwamanani e-MTBE.
Uphethiloli: Ingcindezi Yokufunwa Kokunikezwa Komkhiqizo Ukuze Kugcinwe Imakethe Ibuthakathaka Ngokushintshashintsha Kwezimo
Amanani kaphethiloli wasekhaya angase aqhubeke nokushintshashintsha kancane ngoSepthemba. Kulindeleke ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe ulungise ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngesikhungo sokuguquguquka esiphansi kancane, esithinta imakethe kaphethiloli wasekhaya. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, amazinga okusebenza ezinkampanini ezinkulu zikaphethiloli azokwehla, kodwa lawo asezindaweni zokuhluza ezizimele azokhuphuka, okuqinisekisa ukutholakala kukaphethiloli okwanele. Ngasohlangothini lokufunwa, ngenkathi isizini yendabuko ye-"Golden September" ingase ibangele ukwanda okuncane kwesidingo sikaphethiloli kanye nedizili, ukushintshwa kwamandla amasha kuzonciphisa izinga lokuthuthuka. Phakathi kwenhlanganisela yezinto eziguquguqukayo kanye nezinciphayo, amanani kaphethiloli wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ashintshe kancane ngoSepthemba, kanti intengo ejwayelekile kungenzeka yehle ngama-yuan angu-50-100/ton.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba-05-2025